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EPS vs GrIFK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Group B ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 14:00

EPS

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

GrIFK

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.0%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.4%1-110.0%1-24.8%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.9%3-16.6%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-15.2%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 56.8% 2.00 +13.6%

Draw 22.8% 3.30 -14.9%

Away win 20.5% 3.00 -23.1%

Over 2.5 61.3% 1.44 -11.7%

Over 3.5 37.3% 2.10 -21.7%

BTTS 55.8% 1.40 -21.9%

Home Over 1.5 54.4% 1.67 -9.2%

Away Over 1.5 30.1% 2.10 -36.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 25%

ROI -42.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.8%

H 57% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

EPS2.0

GrIFK1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

EPS · PPG 1.25

GRIFK · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

EPS (H) 56.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +13.6%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.9%

GrIFK (A) 20.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

EPS face GrIFK in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives EPS a 57% chance, the draw 23% and GrIFK 21%, so EPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for EPS and 1.0 for GrIFK (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, EPS are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for GrIFK. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.6%.

EPS vs GrIFK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Match Preview & Prediction

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