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AIFK vs Honka Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Group B ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 15:30

AIFK

PPG 3.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Honka

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.6%0-26.3%0-34.0%0-4+2.9%1 1-05.1%1-19.7%1-29.2%1-35.8%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.7%2-17.0%2-26.7%2-34.2%2-4+3.1%3 3-01.8%3-13.4%3-23.2%3-32.0%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.7%4+-21.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 32.8% 4.40 +44.3%

Draw 22.6% 3.80 -8.5%

Away win 44.6% 1.57 -30.0%

Over 2.5 64.6% 1.44 -7.0%

Over 3.5 42.2% 2.00 -15.6%

BTTS 63.5% 1.44 -8.6%

Home Over 1.5 43.5% 2.50 +8.8%

Away Over 1.5 49.7% 1.50 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 25%

ROI -42.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.5%

A 45% / xG 1.5-1.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AIFK1.5

Honka1.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AIFK · PPG 3.00

HONKA · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (3.00), Away EXCELLENT (3.00)

Win probability 1X2

AIFK (H) 32.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +44.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.5%

Honka (A) 44.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -30.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

AIFK face Honka in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AIFK a 33% chance, the draw 23% and Honka 45%, so Honka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for AIFK and 1.9 for Honka (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AIFK are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 3.00 for Honka. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +44.3%. This match finished 0-1.

AIFK vs Honka Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Match Preview & Prediction

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