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EPS vs AIFK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Group B ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 14:00

EPS

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

AIFK

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.3%0-25.7%0-33.5%0-4+2.4%1 1-05.3%1-19.7%1-28.9%1-35.4%1-4+3.8%2 2-04.1%2-17.5%2-26.8%2-34.2%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.1%3-13.8%3-23.5%3-32.2%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.1%4+-21.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 32.3% 3.10 +8.5%

Draw 22.7% 27.8% 3.60 -11.0%

Away win 42.3% 54.1% 1.85 -21.8%

Over 2.5 64.2% 71.4% 1.40 -10.1%

Over 3.5 41.5% 50.0% 2.00 -17.0%

BTTS 63.7% 71.4% 1.40 -10.8%

Home O1.5 48.1% 42.0% 2.38 +14.5%

Away O1.5 49.4% 66.7% 1.50 -25.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.7%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2✓ 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

EPS1.5

AIFK1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 41.5%

Form & verdict PPG

EPS · PPG 1.67

AIFK · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

EPS (H) 35.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +8.5%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.0%

AIFK (A) 42.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

EPS face AIFK in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives EPS a 35% chance, the draw 23% and AIFK 42%, so AIFK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for EPS and 1.8 for AIFK (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, EPS are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.67 for AIFK. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 1-2.

EPS vs AIFK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Match Preview & Prediction

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