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Honka vs MuSa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Group B ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 11:00

Honka

PPG 2.00 · HOME

7 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

MuSa

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.7% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.3%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.1%1-11.5%1-20.6%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-04.9%2-13.6%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.6%3-15.6%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-032.7%4+-124.2%4+-29.0%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.5% 97.1% 1.03 -24.3%

Draw 17.2% 7.7% 13.00 +74.2%

Away win 9.3% 0.7% 151.00 +782.6%

Over 2.5 75.7% 87.7% 1.14 -13.7%

Over 3.5 53.2% 73.5% 1.36 -27.7%

BTTS 54.9% 45.5% 2.20 +20.8%

Home O1.5 77.8% — — —

Away O1.5 22.5% 11.9% 8.40 +53.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 21%

ROI -21.6%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-1

xG (home)4.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob54.9%

H 74% / xG 4.7-0.7 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 8.8%

#2 5–0 8.3%

#3 3–0 7.6%

#4 4–1 6.6%

#5 5–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Honka4.7

MuSa0.7

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HONKA · PPG 2.00

MUSA · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.80) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Honka (H) 73.5%

ODDS 1.03 · IMPLIED 97.1% EV -24.3%

Draw 17.2%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +74.2%

MuSa (A) 9.3%

ODDS 151.00 · IMPLIED 0.7% EV +782.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Honka face MuSa in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Honka a 74% chance, the draw 17% and MuSa 9%, so Honka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.7 for Honka and 0.7 for MuSa (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Honka are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.80 for MuSa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +782.6%. This match finished 7-1.

Honka vs MuSa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Match Preview & Prediction

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