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EBK vs AIFK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Group B ·Thursday, July 2, 2026, 15:30

EBK

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

AIFK

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-18.3%0-29.6%0-37.5%0-4+7.6%1 1-03.6%1-18.3%1-29.7%1-37.5%1-4+7.6%2 2-01.8%2-14.2%2-24.9%2-33.8%2-4+3.8%3 3-00.6%3-11.4%3-21.6%3-31.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.2% 21.7% 4.60 -18.1%

Draw 22.2% 21.1% 4.75 +3.3%

Away win 62.6% 69.4% 1.44 -9.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% 75.2% 1.33 -15.0%

Over 3.5 40.1% 54.6% 1.83 -26.6%

BTTS 55.6% 71.4% 1.40 -22.2%

Home O1.5 35.2% 40.0% 2.50 -12.0%

Away O1.5 69.2% 73.5% 1.36 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 18%

ROI -34.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob55.6%

A 63% / xG 1.0-2.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.7%

#2 0–2 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.3%

#4 1–3 7.5%

#5 0–3 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

EBK1.0

AIFK2.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

EBK · PPG 1.40

AIFK · PPG 2.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

EBK (H) 15.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -18.1%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +3.3%

AIFK (A) 62.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

EBK face AIFK in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B on Thursday, July 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives EBK a 15% chance, the draw 22% and AIFK 63%, so AIFK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for EBK and 2.3 for AIFK (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, EBK are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.00 for AIFK. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.3%.

EBK vs AIFK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Match Preview & Prediction

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