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Kahibah vs Weston Bears Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 03:00

Kahibah

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Weston Bears

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 86.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+50.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-13.8%0-26.9%0-38.5%0-4+20.0%1 1-00.9%1-13.4%1-26.3%1-37.7%1-4+18.2%2 2-00.4%2-11.6%2-22.9%2-33.5%2-4+8.3%3 3-00.1%3-10.5%3-20.9%3-31.1%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 5.2% 27.8% 3.60 -81.3%

Draw 8.7% 26.3% 3.80 -66.9%

Away win 86.2% 57.1% 1.75 +50.8%

Over 2.5 83.4% — — —

Over 3.5 67.0% — — —

BTTS 58.2% 71.4% 1.40 -18.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)3.7 BTTS prob58.2%

A 86% / xG 0.9-3.7 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 8.5%

#2 0–4 7.7%

#3 1–3 7.7%

#4 1–4 7.0%

#5 0–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kahibah0.9

Weston Bears3.7

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.4% · O3.5 PROB 67.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KAHIBAH · PPG 1.00

WESTON BEARS · PPG 3.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Kahibah (H) 5.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -81.3%

Draw 8.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -66.9%

Weston Bears (A) 86.2%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +50.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kahibah face Weston Bears in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kahibah a 5% chance, the draw 9% and Weston Bears 86%, so Weston Bears are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Kahibah and 3.7 for Weston Bears (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kahibah are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 3.00 for Weston Bears. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +50.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Kahibah vs Weston Bears Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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