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O. Kingsway vs Balcatta Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 07:00

O. Kingsway

PPG 1.67 · HOME

5 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Balcatta

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.6%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.9%1-14.9%1-22.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.8%2-17.8%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.2%3-18.2%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-014.3%4+-114.3%4+-27.2%4+-32.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.2% 76.9% 1.30 -13.9%

Draw 17.7% 20.0% 5.00 -6.9%

Away win 16.1% 14.3% 7.00 +7.6%

Over 2.5 67.0% 73.5% 1.36 -8.9%

Over 3.5 48.3% 54.6% 1.83 -11.6%

BTTS 61.6% 62.5% 1.60 -1.4%

Home O1.5 77.8% 78.1% 1.28 -0.4%

Away O1.5 33.0% 28.6% 3.50 +15.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-4

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.6%

H 66% / xG 3.2-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.2%

#2 3–0 8.2%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 4–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

O. Kingsway3.2

Balcatta1.0

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

O. KINGSWAY · PPG 1.67

BALCATTA · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.67), Away POOR (0.43) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

O. Kingsway (H) 66.2%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -13.9%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -6.9%

Balcatta (A) 16.1%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

O. Kingsway face Balcatta in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives O. Kingsway a 66% chance, the draw 18% and Balcatta 16%, so O. Kingsway are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for O. Kingsway and 1.0 for Balcatta (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, O. Kingsway are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.43 for Balcatta. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 5-4.

O. Kingsway vs Balcatta Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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