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Fremantle City vs Western Knights Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 07:00

Fremantle City

PPG 1.75 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Western Knights

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.2%0-23.4%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.3%1-18.5%1-26.9%1-33.7%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.7%3-15.9%3-24.8%3-32.5%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.8%4+-23.9%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 41.7% 2.40 +18.3%

Draw 22.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.4%

Away win 28.2% 41.7% 2.40 -19.4%

Over 2.5 66.3% 69.4% 1.44 -4.5%

Over 3.5 43.6% 50.0% 2.00 -12.8%

BTTS 63.5% 73.5% 1.36 -13.6%

Home O1.5 57.5% 54.6% 1.83 +5.2%

Away O1.5 49.7% 54.6% 1.83 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fremantle City2.0

Western Knights1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FREMANTLE CITY · PPG 1.75

WESTERN KNIGHTS · PPG 0.63

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

Fremantle City (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +18.3%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.4%

Western Knights (A) 28.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fremantle City face Western Knights in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fremantle City a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Western Knights 28%, so Fremantle City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Fremantle City and 1.6 for Western Knights (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fremantle City are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.63 for Western Knights. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Fremantle City vs Western Knights Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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