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Bayswater City vs Stirling Lions Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 11:00

Bayswater City

PPG 2.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stirling Lions

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.2%0-21.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.2%1-16.0%1-24.3%1-32.0%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.3%2-25.9%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.3%3-17.6%3-25.4%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-110.2%4+-27.3%4+-33.5%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.6% 59.9% 1.67 +4.5%

Draw 16.3% 27.0% 3.70 -23.8%

Away win 21.0% 25.0% 4.00 -9.6%

Over 2.5 70.8% 69.4% 1.44 +1.9%

Over 3.5 47.2% 47.6% 2.10 -0.9%

BTTS 63.3% 66.7% 1.50 -5.1%

Home O1.5 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Away O1.5 42.6% 36.4% 2.75 +17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.3%

H 63% / xG 2.8-1.4 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 3–1 7.6%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 2–2 5.9%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayswater City2.8

Stirling Lions1.4

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.8% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYSWATER CITY · PPG 2.56

STIRLING LIONS · PPG 1.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.33 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bayswater City (H) 62.6%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +4.5%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -23.8%

Stirling Lions (A) 21.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayswater City face Stirling Lions in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayswater City a 63% chance, the draw 16% and Stirling Lions 21%, so Bayswater City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Bayswater City and 1.4 for Stirling Lions (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayswater City are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 1.70 for Stirling Lions. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +17.2%.

Bayswater City vs Stirling Lions Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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