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Bayswater City vs Perth Glory II Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 07:00

Bayswater City

PPG 2.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Perth Glory II

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.1%0-20.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.2%1 1-02.8%1-13.8%1-22.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.5%2 2-04.8%2-16.5%2-24.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.6%3-17.6%3-25.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-011.8%4+-116.0%4+-210.9%4+-34.9%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% 71.4% 1.40 -10.3%

Draw 15.3% 19.6% 5.10 -13.2%

Away win 20.6% 20.0% 5.00 +1.8%

Over 2.5 76.0% 80.0% 1.25 -5.0%

Over 3.5 55.5% 65.4% 1.53 -15.1%

BTTS 68.5% 76.9% 1.30 -10.9%

Home O1.5 78.4% 83.3% 1.20 -5.9%

Away O1.5 41.2% 46.5% 2.15 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob68.5%

H 64% / xG 3.5-1.4 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.6%

#2 4–1 6.6%

#3 2–1 6.5%

#4 1–2 2.5%

#5 2–2 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayswater City3.5

Perth Glory II1.4

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.0% · O3.5 PROB 55.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYSWATER CITY · PPG 2.60

PERTH GLORY II · PPG 0.70

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.12 for Home, form 2.60 vs 0.70 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bayswater City (H) 64.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -10.3%

Draw 15.3%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -13.2%

Perth Glory II (A) 20.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayswater City face Perth Glory II in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayswater City a 64% chance, the draw 15% and Perth Glory II 21%, so Bayswater City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Bayswater City and 1.4 for Perth Glory II (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayswater City are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.70 for Perth Glory II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Bayswater City vs Perth Glory II Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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