Today / Australia - Western Australia NPL / Olympic Kingsway vs Fremantle City

Olympic Kingsway vs Fremantle City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 07:00

Olympic Kingsway

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Fremantle City

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.6%0-23.5%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.9%1-19.0%1-26.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-19.0%2-26.9%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.9%3-15.9%3-24.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.6%4+-23.5%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 62.5% 1.60 -23.5%

Draw 22.7% 23.1% 4.33 -1.0%

Away win 29.6% 24.4% 4.10 +12.8%

Over 2.5 65.0% 73.5% 1.36 -11.6%

Over 3.5 43.5% 51.8% 1.93 -16.0%

BTTS 63.2% 71.4% 1.40 -11.5%

Home O1.5 54.9% 71.4% 1.40 -23.1%

Away O1.5 48.5% 43.5% 2.30 +11.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 48% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olympic Kingsway2.0

Fremantle City1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OLYMPIC KINGSWAY · PPG 1.50

FREMANTLE CITY · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Olympic Kingsway (H) 47.8%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -23.5%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -1.0%

Fremantle City (A) 29.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olympic Kingsway face Fremantle City in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olympic Kingsway a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Fremantle City 30%, so Olympic Kingsway are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Olympic Kingsway and 1.5 for Fremantle City (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olympic Kingsway are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.30 for Fremantle City. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +11.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Olympic Kingsway vs Fremantle City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Western Australia NPL Predictions