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Perth Glory II vs Fremantle City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 07:00

Perth Glory II

PPG 1.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fremantle City

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-15.9%0-25.7%0-33.6%0-4+2.7%1 1-04.9%1-19.3%1-28.8%1-35.6%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.8%2-17.2%2-26.9%2-34.4%2-4+3.2%3 3-02.0%3-13.8%3-23.6%3-32.3%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.1%4+-22.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 37.0% 2.70 -4.7%

Draw 22.5% 27.0% 3.70 -10.1%

Away win 42.1% 47.6% 2.10 -11.6%

Over 2.5 64.1% 73.5% 1.36 -12.8%

Over 3.5 42.6% 54.6% 1.83 -22.0%

BTTS 63.3% 75.2% 1.33 -15.8%

Home O1.5 45.6% 55.6% 1.80 -17.9%

Away O1.5 53.8% 63.7% 1.57 -15.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.3%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Perth Glory II1.6

Fremantle City1.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PERTH GLORY II · PPG 1.10

FREMANTLE CITY · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Perth Glory II (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -4.7%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.1%

Fremantle City (A) 42.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Perth Glory II face Fremantle City in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perth Glory II a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Fremantle City 42%, so Fremantle City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Perth Glory II and 1.9 for Fremantle City (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perth Glory II are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.44 for Fremantle City.

Perth Glory II vs Fremantle City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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