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Western Knights vs Balcatta Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 07:00

Western Knights

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Balcatta

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 80.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.9% — a clear edge.

+14.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.6%0-21.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-03.3%1-14.9%1-23.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.0%2-17.4%2-25.5%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.1%3-17.5%3-25.6%3-32.8%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-112.1%4+-29.0%4+-34.5%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.6% 59.9% 1.67 -0.5%

Draw 17.1% 25.0% 4.00 -19.0%

Away win 23.3% 26.3% 3.80 -6.9%

Over 2.5 71.6% 71.4% 1.40 +0.2%

Over 3.5 52.2% 52.4% 1.91 -0.3%

BTTS 63.4% 71.4% 1.40 -11.2%

Home O1.5 80.3% 69.9% 1.43 +14.8%

Away O1.5 46.1% 44.6% 2.24 +3.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.4%

H 60% / xG 3.0-1.5 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 7.4%

#3 4–1 5.7%

#4 1–1 4.9%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Western Knights3.0

Balcatta1.5

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.2%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTERN KNIGHTS · PPG 1.80

BALCATTA · PPG 0.70

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.55 for Home, form 1.80 vs 0.70 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Western Knights (H) 59.6%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -0.5%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -19.0%

Balcatta (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Western Knights face Balcatta in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Western Knights a 60% chance, the draw 17% and Balcatta 23%, so Western Knights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Western Knights and 1.5 for Balcatta (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Western Knights are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.70 for Balcatta. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.9%.

Western Knights vs Balcatta Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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