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Armadale vs Perth RedStar Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 07:00

Armadale

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWL

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Perth RedStar

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-15.0%0-24.8%0-33.1%0-4+2.3%1 1-04.5%1-18.6%1-28.3%1-35.3%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.9%2-17.5%2-27.2%2-34.6%2-4+3.4%3 3-02.2%3-14.3%3-24.1%3-32.7%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.8%4+-22.7%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% 43.5% 2.30 -5.7%

Draw 22.1% 26.7% 3.75 -10.3%

Away win 36.9% 39.2% 2.55 -5.9%

Over 2.5 67.0% 70.4% 1.42 -4.9%

Over 3.5 43.5% 48.8% 2.05 -10.8%

BTTS 63.2% 73.5% 1.36 -14.1%

Home O1.5 48.8% 57.8% 1.73 -15.6%

Away O1.5 55.2% 54.6% 1.83 +1.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.2%

H 41% / xG 1.7-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 7.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Armadale1.7

Perth RedStar1.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ARMADALE · PPG 1.30

PERTH REDSTAR · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Armadale (H) 41.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -5.7%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.3%

Perth RedStar (A) 36.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Armadale face Perth RedStar in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Armadale a 41% chance, the draw 22% and Perth RedStar 37%, so Armadale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Armadale and 1.9 for Perth RedStar (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Armadale are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.60 for Perth RedStar. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 0-4.

Armadale vs Perth RedStar Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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