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Stirling Lions vs Western Knights Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 07:00

Stirling Lions

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Western Knights

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.9%0-24.2%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.2%1-110.3%1-27.4%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-19.1%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.7%3-15.4%3-23.8%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.5%4+-22.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 44.4% 2.25 -1.2%

Draw 22.5% 26.3% 3.80 -8.7%

Away win 33.6% 40.0% 2.50 -16.0%

Over 2.5 62.8% 72.5% 1.38 -13.3%

Over 3.5 39.4% 51.3% 1.95 -23.2%

BTTS 61.3% 75.2% 1.33 -18.5%

Home O1.5 48.8% 59.9% 1.67 -18.5%

Away O1.5 41.2% 55.6% 1.80 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–0 6.3%

#5 1–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stirling Lions1.8

Western Knights1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

STIRLING LIONS · PPG 1.00

WESTERN KNIGHTS · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stirling Lions (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -1.2%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.7%

Western Knights (A) 33.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stirling Lions face Western Knights in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stirling Lions a 44% chance, the draw 23% and Western Knights 34%, so Stirling Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Stirling Lions and 1.4 for Western Knights (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stirling Lions are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Western Knights. This match finished 3-1.

Stirling Lions vs Western Knights Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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