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Perth vs Perth RedStar Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 07:00

Perth

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Perth RedStar

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.9%0-24.5%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.6%1-110.2%1-27.8%1-34.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.8%2-26.7%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.3%3-15.0%3-23.9%3-32.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.2%4+-22.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 43.5% 2.30 -0.4%

Draw 22.7% 27.0% 3.70 -9.6%

Away win 34.0% 40.8% 2.45 -16.7%

Over 2.5 63.1% 66.7% 1.50 -5.3%

Over 3.5 38.8% 47.6% 2.10 -18.5%

BTTS 61.6% 69.4% 1.44 -11.3%

Home O1.5 49.2% 54.6% 1.83 -10.0%

Away O1.5 47.3% 54.6% 1.83 -13.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.6%

H 43% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Perth1.7

Perth RedStar1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PERTH · PPG 1.44

PERTH REDSTAR · PPG 1.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Perth (H) 43.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -0.4%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.6%

Perth RedStar (A) 34.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Perth face Perth RedStar in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perth a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Perth RedStar 34%, so Perth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Perth and 1.5 for Perth RedStar (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perth are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.78 for Perth RedStar.

Perth vs Perth RedStar Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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