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Philadelphia vs DC United Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 23:30

Philadelphia

PPG 0.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

DC United

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.0%0-112.8%0-23.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.0%1-112.2%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.5%2-15.8%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.0%3-11.8%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 55.2% 1.81 -23.3%

Draw 35.0% 27.8% 3.60 +26.0%

Away win 22.6% 23.8% 4.20 -5.1%

Over 2.5 20.7% 52.6% 1.90 -60.7%

Over 3.5 7.4% 30.8% 3.25 -75.9%

BTTS 28.1% 56.5% 1.77 -50.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob28.1%

H 42% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 21% / NoBTTS 28%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 21.0%

#2 1–0 20.0%

#3 0–1 12.8%

#4 1–1 12.2%

#5 2–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Philadelphia1.0

DC United0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 20.7% · O3.5 PROB 7.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PHILADELPHIA · PPG 0.00

DC UNITED · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Philadelphia (H) 42.4%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -23.3%

Draw 35.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +26.0%

DC United (A) 22.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Philadelphia face DC United in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Philadelphia a 42% chance, the draw 35% and DC United 23%, so Philadelphia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Philadelphia and 0.6 for DC United (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 21% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 28% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Philadelphia are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.00 for DC United. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +26.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Philadelphia vs DC United Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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