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Orlando City vs Houston Dynamo Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 23:30

Orlando City

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Houston Dynamo

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 74% chance

Combined xG of 6.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 96.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.

+49.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.5%0-20.9%0-31.1%0-4+2.9%1 1-00.4%1-11.4%1-22.6%1-33.3%1-4+8.3%2 2-00.5%2-12.0%2-23.8%2-34.8%2-4+12.0%3 3-00.5%3-11.9%3-23.7%3-34.6%3-4+11.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-12.9%4+-25.4%4+-36.8%4+-4+17.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 40.0% 2.50 -26.8%

Draw 15.8% 26.3% 3.80 -40.0%

Away win 55.0% 40.7% 2.46 +35.3%

Over 2.5 96.2% 64.5% 1.55 +49.1%

Over 3.5 89.9% 42.6% 2.35 +111.3%

BTTS 92.3% 69.0% 1.45 +33.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)3.8 BTTS prob92.3%

A 55% / xG 2.9-3.8 / O2.5 96% / BTTS 92%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–3 4.8%

#2 3–3 4.6%

#3 2–4 4.5%

#4 3–4 4.3%

#5 2–2 3.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orlando City2.9

Houston Dynamo3.8

COMBINED 6.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 96.2% · O3.5 PROB 89.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLANDO CITY · PPG 1.00

HOUSTON DYNAMO · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

74%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Orlando City (H) 29.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -26.8%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -40.0%

Houston Dynamo (A) 55.0%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV +35.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orlando City face Houston Dynamo in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orlando City a 29% chance, the draw 16% and Houston Dynamo 55%, so Houston Dynamo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Orlando City and 3.8 for Houston Dynamo (6.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-3. There is a 96% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 92% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orlando City are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Houston Dynamo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +111.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Orlando City vs Houston Dynamo Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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