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New York City vs Charlotte Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 23:30

New York City

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Charlotte

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+43.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.9%0-21.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.2%1-15.5%1-23.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.2%2-18.1%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.0%3-17.9%3-25.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-111.9%4+-27.8%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.3% 54.3% 1.84 +29.3%

Draw 15.2% 27.4% 3.65 -44.5%

Away win 14.4% 25.3% 3.95 -43.1%

Over 2.5 79.5% 55.6% 1.80 +43.1%

Over 3.5 61.2% 33.3% 3.00 +83.6%

BTTS 69.2% 58.8% 1.70 +17.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob69.2%

H 70% / xG 2.9-1.3 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 2–0 6.2%

#4 3–0 6.0%

#5 4–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New York City2.9

Charlotte1.3

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 61.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW YORK CITY · PPG 1.75

CHARLOTTE · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.75), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

New York City (H) 70.3%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV +29.3%

Draw 15.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -44.5%

Charlotte (A) 14.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -43.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

New York City face Charlotte in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York City a 70% chance, the draw 15% and Charlotte 14%, so New York City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for New York City and 1.3 for Charlotte (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York City are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.50 for Charlotte. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +83.6%. This match finished 1-2.

New York City vs Charlotte Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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