New York City vs Charlotte Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

USA - Major League Soccer Regular Season - 8 Citi Field· New York Saturday, April 18, 2026 23:30

New York City PPG 1.75

1-2 MISS

Charlotte PPG 0.50

Over3.5· +83.6% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

New York City face Charlotte in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York City a 70% chance, the draw 15% and Charlotte 14%, so New York City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for New York City and 1.3 for Charlotte (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York City are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.50 for Charlotte. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +83.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 70.3%

Odds: 1.84 EV: +29.3%

Draw 15.2%

Odds: 3.65 EV: -44.5%

Away 14.4%

Odds: 3.95 EV: -43.1%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 79.5% Odds: 1.80 +43.1%

Over 3.5 61.2% Odds: 3.00 +83.6%

BTTS 69.2% Odds: 1.70 +17.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 3-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 3-0 ✘

5th 4-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

New York City

2.92

Charlotte

1.31

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +43.1% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+83.6%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5/Under 61%

BTTS/No 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 50% (48 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.75), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus