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New England vs Columbus Crew Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 23:30

New England

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Columbus Crew

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 82.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+48.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.3%0-20.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.8%1-14.3%1-22.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.3%2-17.2%2-24.1%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.0%3-18.0%3-24.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-013.6%4+-115.6%4+-28.9%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 79.1% 35.1% 2.85 +125.4%

Draw 11.8% 28.2% 3.55 -58.1%

Away win 9.1% 43.9% 2.28 -79.3%

Over 2.5 82.4% 55.6% 1.80 +48.3%

Over 3.5 65.4% 33.3% 3.00 +96.2%

BTTS 65.7% 61.7% 1.62 +6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 82%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob65.7%

H 79% / xG 3.3-1.1 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.0%

#2 2–1✓ 7.2%

#3 3–0 7.0%

#4 4–1 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New England3.3

Columbus Crew1.1

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.4% · O3.5 PROB 65.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW ENGLAND · PPG 3.00

COLUMBUS CREW · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

64%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

New England (H) 79.1%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +125.4%

Draw 11.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -58.1%

Columbus Crew (A) 9.1%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -79.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

New England face Columbus Crew in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New England a 79% chance, the draw 12% and Columbus Crew 9%, so New England are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for New England and 1.1 for Columbus Crew (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New England are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Columbus Crew. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +125.4%. This match finished 2-1.

New England vs Columbus Crew Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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