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JaPS vs SJK Akatemia Prediction— Finland - Ykkösliiga

Group Stage ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 15:30

JaPS

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

SJK Akatemia

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.8%0-111.8%0-23.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.2%1-112.1%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.3%2-16.2%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.5%3-12.1%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 54.1% 1.85 -19.1%

Draw 28.7% 27.8% 3.60 +2.0%

Away win 27.6% 28.6% 3.50 -2.0%

Over 2.5 38.6% 60.6% 1.65 -36.3%

Over 3.5 23.4% 38.5% 2.60 -23.5%

BTTS 46.5% 64.5% 1.55 -27.9%

Home O1.5 35.2% 57.8% 1.73 -39.1%

Away O1.5 18.0% 39.2% 2.55 -32.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.5%

H 44% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.8%

#2 1–0 20.2%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 0–1 11.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JaPS1.0

SJK Akatemia0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JAPS · PPG 1.50

SJK AKATEMIA · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=43.7%

Win probability 1X2

JaPS (H) 43.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -19.1%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +2.0%

SJK Akatemia (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

JaPS face SJK Akatemia in Finland - Ykkösliiga on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JaPS a 44% chance, the draw 29% and SJK Akatemia 28%, so JaPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for JaPS and 0.6 for SJK Akatemia (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JaPS are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.33 for SJK Akatemia. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.0%.

JaPS vs SJK Akatemia Prediction— Finland - Ykkösliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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