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Haka vs JaPS Prediction— Finland - Ykkösliiga

Group Stage ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 15:30

Haka

PPG 2.20 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

JaPS

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-15.5%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.0%1-110.2%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-19.5%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.0%3-15.9%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-14.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.9% 69.4% 1.44 -16.6%

Draw 23.0% 23.8% 4.20 -2.0%

Away win 19.2% 16.7% 6.00 +9.1%

Over 2.5 48.7% 60.6% 1.65 -19.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 38.5% 2.60 -16.2%

BTTS 48.0% 57.1% 1.75 -16.0%

Home O1.5 55.0% 67.6% 1.48 -18.6%

Away O1.5 27.9% 26.7% 3.75 +2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 58% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.0%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haka1.9

JaPS0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HAKA · PPG 2.20

JAPS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=57.9%

Win probability 1X2

Haka (H) 57.9%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -16.6%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -2.0%

JaPS (A) 19.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haka face JaPS in Finland - Ykkösliiga on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haka a 58% chance, the draw 23% and JaPS 19%, so Haka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Haka and 0.7 for JaPS (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haka are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.00 for JaPS. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Haka vs JaPS Prediction— Finland - Ykkösliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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