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KaPa vs JaPS Prediction— Finland - Ykkösliiga

Group Stage ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 16:00

KaPa

PPG 0.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

JaPS

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.2%0-114.6%0-26.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.7%1-113.3%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.1%2-16.1%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.2%3-11.8%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 42.0% 2.38 -14.3%

Draw 34.8% 30.3% 3.30 +14.8%

Away win 29.2% 37.7% 2.65 -13.6%

Over 2.5 32.7% 56.5% 1.77 -42.1%

Over 3.5 18.6% 33.9% 2.95 -27.1%

BTTS 45.5% 63.7% 1.57 -28.6%

Home O1.5 23.2% 47.6% 2.10 -30.8%

Away O1.5 20.9% 43.5% 2.30 -31.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.5%

D 35% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.2%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.7%

#4 0–1 14.6%

#5 2–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KaPa0.9

JaPS0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.7% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KAPA · PPG 0.67

JAPS · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

KaPa (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -14.3%

Draw 34.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +14.8%

JaPS (A) 29.2%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

KaPa face JaPS in Finland - Ykkösliiga on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KaPa a 36% chance, the draw 35% and JaPS 29%, so KaPa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for KaPa and 0.8 for JaPS (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KaPa are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.33 for JaPS. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 2-1.

KaPa vs JaPS Prediction— Finland - Ykkösliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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