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KaPa vs JaPS Prediction— Finland - Ykkösliiga

Group Stage ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 13:00

KaPa

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

JaPS

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-111.8%0-25.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.9%1-113.4%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.9%2-17.6%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.0%3-12.9%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 2.35 +4.1%

Draw 28.1% 3.40 -2.7%

Away win 27.7% 2.62 -16.5%

Over 2.5 48.5% 1.77 -14.2%

Over 3.5 28.6% 2.95 -9.4%

BTTS 52.4% 1.60 -16.2%

Home Over 1.5 35.5% 2.10 -25.4%

Away Over 1.5 31.3% 2.30 -28.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.4%

H 44% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KaPa1.1

JaPS1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KAPA · PPG 1.00

JAPS · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

KaPa (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +4.1%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.7%

JaPS (A) 27.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

KaPa face JaPS in Finland - Ykkösliiga on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KaPa a 44% chance, the draw 28% and JaPS 28%, so KaPa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for KaPa and 1.0 for JaPS (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KaPa are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.40 for JaPS. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.1%.

KaPa vs JaPS Prediction— Finland - Ykkösliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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