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Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 23:30

Cincinnati

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDL

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chicago Fire

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-110.2%0-28.6%0-34.8%0-4+2.9%1 1-06.8%1-111.5%1-29.6%1-35.4%1-4+3.3%2 2-03.8%2-16.4%2-25.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.4%3-12.4%3-22.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.4% 40.0% 2.50 -36.5%

Draw 24.2% 26.3% 3.80 -8.0%

Away win 50.4% 40.3% 2.48 +25.0%

Over 2.5 52.9% 63.7% 1.57 -17.0%

Over 3.5 30.7% 41.7% 2.40 -26.3%

BTTS 54.7% 67.6% 1.48 -19.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.7%

A 50% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 0–1 10.2%

#3 1–2 9.6%

#4 0–2 8.6%

#5 1–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cincinnati1.1

Chicago Fire1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CINCINNATI · PPG 2.00

CHICAGO FIRE · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Cincinnati (H) 25.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -36.5%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.0%

Chicago Fire (A) 50.4%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +25.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cincinnati face Chicago Fire in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cincinnati a 25% chance, the draw 24% and Chicago Fire 50%, so Chicago Fire are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Cincinnati and 1.7 for Chicago Fire (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cincinnati are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Chicago Fire. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.0%. This match finished 3-3.

Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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