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Vikingur R. vs KA Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 13 ·Thursday, July 2, 2026, 19:15

Vikingur R.

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

KA Akureyri

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 75.9% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-10.5%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.2%1-12.3%1-20.8%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-06.6%2-14.7%2-21.7%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.2%3-16.5%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-029.4%4+-120.9%4+-27.4%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.9% 87.7% 1.14 -13.5%

Draw 16.7% 14.7% 6.80 +8.1%

Away win 7.4% 8.3% 12.00 -6.7%

Over 2.5 75.7% 82.0% 1.22 -7.6%

Over 3.5 53.2% 61.7% 1.62 -13.8%

BTTS 53.3% 59.9% 1.67 -11.0%

Home O1.5 77.8% 87.7% 1.14 -11.3%

Away O1.5 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -12.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.3%

H 76% / xG 4.2-0.7 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 9.6%

#2 3–0 9.2%

#3 5–0 8.0%

#4 4–1 6.8%

#5 2–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vikingur R.4.2

KA Akureyri0.7

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKINGUR R. · PPG 2.67

KA AKUREYRI · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.67), Away AVERAGE (1.17) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vikingur R. (H) 75.9%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -13.5%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +8.1%

KA Akureyri (A) 7.4%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vikingur R. face KA Akureyri in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Thursday, July 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vikingur R. a 76% chance, the draw 17% and KA Akureyri 7%, so Vikingur R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.2 for Vikingur R. and 0.7 for KA Akureyri (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vikingur R. are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.17 for KA Akureyri. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.5%.

Vikingur R. vs KA Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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