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Thor Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 13 ·Thursday, July 2, 2026, 17:00

Thor Akureyri

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

KR Reykjavik

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 100.0% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7% — a clear edge.

+14.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.8%0-21.9%0-33.0%0-4+12.9%1 1-00.3%1-11.4%1-23.2%1-35.0%1-4+21.5%2 2-00.2%2-11.2%2-22.7%2-34.2%2-4+17.9%3 3-00.1%3-10.6%3-21.5%3-32.3%3-4+10.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.4%4+-20.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+6.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.2% 14.8% 6.75 -6.5%

Draw 17.4% 17.2% 5.80 +0.5%

Away win 69.4% 78.1% 1.28 -11.2%

Over 2.5 81.7% 85.5% 1.17 -4.4%

Over 3.5 70.9% 71.4% 1.40 -0.7%

BTTS 69.1% 76.9% 1.30 -10.2%

Home O1.5 53.3% 43.5% 2.30 +22.6%

Away O1.5 100.0% 87.7% 1.14 +14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)4.7 BTTS prob69.1%

A 69% / xG 1.7-4.7 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–4 5.9%

#2 1–5 5.5%

#3 1–3 5.0%

#4 2–4 4.9%

#5 2–5 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thor Akureyri1.7

KR Reykjavik4.7

COMBINED 6.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.7% · O3.5 PROB 70.9%

Form & verdict PPG

THOR AKUREYRI · PPG 0.50

KR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Thor Akureyri (H) 13.2%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV -6.5%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +0.5%

KR Reykjavik (A) 69.4%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Thor Akureyri face KR Reykjavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Thursday, July 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thor Akureyri a 13% chance, the draw 17% and KR Reykjavik 69%, so KR Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Thor Akureyri and 4.7 for KR Reykjavik (6.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-4. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thor Akureyri are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.50 for KR Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +22.6%. This match finished 3-3.

Thor Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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