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Thor Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 13 ·Thursday, July 2, 2026, 17:00

Thor Akureyri

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

KR Reykjavik

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.7% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.8%0-21.9%0-33.0%0-4+12.9%1 1-00.3%1-11.4%1-23.2%1-35.0%1-4+21.5%2 2-00.2%2-11.2%2-22.7%2-34.2%2-4+17.9%3 3-00.1%3-10.6%3-21.5%3-32.3%3-4+10.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.4%4+-20.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+6.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.2% 14.8% 6.75 -6.5%

Draw 17.4% 17.2% 5.80 +0.5%

Away win 69.4% 78.1% 1.28 -11.2%

Over 2.5 81.7% 85.5% 1.17 -4.4%

Over 3.5 70.9% 71.4% 1.40 -0.7%

BTTS 69.1% 76.9% 1.30 -10.2%

Home O1.5 53.3% 43.5% 2.30 +22.6%

Away O1.5 100.0% 87.7% 1.14 +14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -12.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)4.7 BTTS prob69.1%

A 69% / xG 1.7-4.7 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–4 5.9%

#2 1–5 5.5%

#3 1–3 5.0%

#4 2–4 4.9%

#5 2–5 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thor Akureyri1.7

KR Reykjavik4.7

COMBINED 6.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.7% · O3.5 PROB 70.9%

Form & verdict PPG

THOR AKUREYRI · PPG 0.50

KR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Thor Akureyri (H) 13.2%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV -6.5%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +0.5%

KR Reykjavik (A) 69.4%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Thor Akureyri face KR Reykjavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Thursday, July 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thor Akureyri a 13% chance, the draw 17% and KR Reykjavik 69%, so KR Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Thor Akureyri and 4.7 for KR Reykjavik (6.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-4. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thor Akureyri are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.50 for KR Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +22.6%.

Thor Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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