Today / USA - Major League Soccer / Atlanta Utd vs Nashville SC

Atlanta Utd vs Nashville SC Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 23:30

Atlanta Utd

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Nashville SC

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

Away 56% chance

Model probability 75.2% vs bookmaker-implied 47.2% — a clear edge.

+59.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-115.2%0-216.2%0-311.5%0-4+10.0%1 1-03.6%1-17.7%1-28.2%1-35.9%1-4+5.1%2 2-00.9%2-12.0%2-22.1%2-31.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-00.2%3-10.3%3-20.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 7.6% 30.8% 3.25 -75.3%

Draw 17.3% 29.0% 3.45 -40.3%

Away win 75.2% 47.2% 2.12 +59.4%

Over 2.5 49.1% 54.1% 1.85 -9.2%

Over 3.5 27.2% 30.8% 3.25 -11.6%

BTTS 35.2% 58.8% 1.70 -40.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob35.2%

A 75% / xG 0.5-2.1 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2✓ 16.2%

#2 0–1 15.2%

#3 0–3 11.5%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 1–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlanta Utd0.5

Nashville SC2.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.1% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLANTA UTD · PPG 1.00

NASHVILLE SC · PPG 1.75

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

56%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Atlanta Utd (H) 7.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -75.3%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -40.3%

Nashville SC (A) 75.2%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +59.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlanta Utd face Nashville SC in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlanta Utd a 8% chance, the draw 17% and Nashville SC 75%, so Nashville SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Atlanta Utd and 2.1 for Nashville SC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlanta Utd are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Nashville SC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +59.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Atlanta Utd vs Nashville SC Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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