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D. Recoleta vs 2 de Mayo Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 17 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 23:30

D. Recoleta

PPG 1.50 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

2 de Mayo

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 76.7% vs bookmaker-implied 39.4% — a clear edge.

+94.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-13.0%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.0%1-17.2%1-22.4%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-18.8%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.9%3-17.2%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.9%4+-17.8%4+-22.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.7% 39.4% 2.54 +94.8%

Draw 15.3% 31.7% 3.15 -51.8%

Away win 8.1% 37.7% 2.65 -78.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 47.6% 2.10 +25.4%

Over 3.5 37.4% 27.0% 3.70 +38.4%

BTTS 43.9% 56.5% 1.77 -22.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.9%

H 77% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.5%

#2 1–0 11.0%

#3 3–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 1–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Recoleta2.4

2 de Mayo0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

D. RECOLETA · PPG 1.50

2 DE MAYO · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

D. Recoleta (H) 76.7%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV +94.8%

Draw 15.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -51.8%

2 de Mayo (A) 8.1%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -78.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Recoleta face 2 de Mayo in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Recoleta a 77% chance, the draw 15% and 2 de Mayo 8%, so D. Recoleta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for D. Recoleta and 0.7 for 2 de Mayo (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Recoleta are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for 2 de Mayo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +94.8%. This match finished 5-0.

D. Recoleta vs 2 de Mayo Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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