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Paysandu vs Santa Cruz Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 20:00

Paysandu

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Santa Cruz

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-112.6%0-24.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.8%1-113.1%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.8%2-16.9%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.0%3-12.4%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 40.6% — —

Draw 31.4% — —

Away win 28.0% — —

Over 2.5 37.3% — —

Over 3.5 18.6% — —

BTTS 48.1% — —

Home Over 1.5 35.5% — —

Away Over 1.5 22.9% — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -44.7%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.1%

H 41% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.1%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.8%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paysandu1.0

Santa Cruz0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PAYSANDU · PPG 1.83

SANTA CRUZ · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Paysandu (H) 40.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Santa Cruz (A) 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Paysandu face Santa Cruz in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paysandu a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Santa Cruz 28%, so Paysandu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Paysandu and 0.8 for Santa Cruz (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paysandu are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.33 for Santa Cruz.

Paysandu vs Santa Cruz Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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