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Itabaiana vs Ferroviaria Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 12 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 22:00

Itabaiana

PPG 0.40 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Ferroviaria

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.5%0-119.4%0-211.4%0-34.4%0-4+1.7%1 1-010.4%1-112.2%1-27.1%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-03.3%2-13.8%2-22.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.7%3-10.8%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.4% 37.0% 2.70 -23.7%

Draw 31.0% 34.5% 2.90 -10.1%

Away win 46.7% 38.5% 2.60 +21.4%

Over 2.5 37.3% 40.8% 2.45 -8.6%

Over 3.5 18.6% 22.2% 4.50 -9.8%

BTTS 47.1% 51.3% 1.95 -8.2%

Home O1.5 32.5% 33.9% 2.95 -4.1%

Away O1.5 36.3% 35.1% 2.85 +3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.1%

A 47% / xG 0.6-1.2 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.5%

#2 0–1 19.4%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 0–2 11.4%

#5 1–0✓ 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Itabaiana0.6

Ferroviaria1.2

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ITABAIANA · PPG 0.40

FERROVIARIA · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.20) vs Home POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

Itabaiana (H) 22.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -23.7%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.1%

Ferroviaria (A) 46.7%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Itabaiana face Ferroviaria in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Itabaiana a 22% chance, the draw 31% and Ferroviaria 47%, so Ferroviaria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Itabaiana and 1.2 for Ferroviaria (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Itabaiana are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 1.20 for Ferroviaria. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Itabaiana vs Ferroviaria Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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