Today / Brazil - Serie C / Confianca vs Guarani

Confianca vs Guarani Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 11 ·Monday, June 22, 2026, 22:30

Confianca

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Guarani

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+27.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.7%0-121.9%0-214.4%0-36.3%0-4+2.8%1 1-08.0%1-110.5%1-26.9%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-01.9%2-12.5%2-21.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.3%3-10.4%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.8% 30.3% 3.30 -34.7%

Draw 27.9% 33.3% 3.00 -9.8%

Away win 59.2% 46.5% 2.15 +27.3%

Over 2.5 37.4% 38.5% 2.60 -2.8%

Over 3.5 19.1% 21.1% 4.75 -5.6%

BTTS 44.1% 47.6% 2.10 -7.4%

Home O1.5 20.0% 27.0% 3.70 -15.6%

Away O1.5 34.4% 38.5% 2.60 -10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob44.1%

A 59% / xG 0.5-1.3 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 21.9%

#2 0–0 16.7%

#3 0–2 14.4%

#4 1–1 10.5%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Confianca0.5

Guarani1.3

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.4% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CONFIANCA · PPG 1.40

GUARANI · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Confianca (H) 12.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -34.7%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.8%

Guarani (A) 59.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +27.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Confianca face Guarani in Brazil - Serie C on Monday, June 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Confianca a 13% chance, the draw 28% and Guarani 59%, so Guarani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Confianca and 1.3 for Guarani (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Confianca are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.00 for Guarani. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Confianca vs Guarani Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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