Today / Brazil - Serie C / Confianca vs Guarani

Confianca vs Guarani Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 11 ·Monday, June 22, 2026, 22:30

Confianca

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guarani

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+27.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.7%0-121.9%0-214.4%0-36.3%0-4+2.8%1 1-08.0%1-110.5%1-26.9%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-01.9%2-12.5%2-21.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.3%3-10.4%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 12.8% 3.30 -34.7%

Draw 27.9% 3.00 -9.8%

Away win 59.2% 2.15 +27.3%

Over 2.5 37.4% 2.60 -2.8%

Over 3.5 19.1% 4.75 -5.6%

BTTS 44.1% 2.10 -7.4%

Win probability 1X2

Confianca (H) 12.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -34.7%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.8%

Guarani (A) 59.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +27.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 68%

ROI -46.4%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob44.1%

A 59% / xG 0.5-1.3 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 21.9%

#2 0–0 16.7%

#3 0–2 14.4%

#4 1–1 10.5%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Confianca0.5

Guarani1.3

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.4% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CONFIANCA · PPG 1.40

GUARANI · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.40)

Match Preview & Prediction

Confianca face Guarani in Brazil - Serie C on Monday, June 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Confianca a 13% chance, the draw 28% and Guarani 59%, so Guarani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Confianca and 1.3 for Guarani (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Confianca are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.00 for Guarani. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.3%.

Confianca vs Guarani Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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