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Ituano vs Maranhao Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 23:30

Ituano

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Maranhao

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.4%0-19.1%0-22.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.6%1-111.4%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.9%2-17.1%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.4%3-13.0%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 1.60 -23.2%

Draw 28.6% 3.40 -1.7%

Away win 23.3% 5.50 +16.9%

Over 2.5 37.3% 2.15 -19.8%

Over 3.5 18.6% 3.90 -16.5%

BTTS 46.9% 2.05 -3.9%

Home Over 1.5 43.0% 1.85 -20.4%

Away Over 1.5 18.0% 4.50 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -44.7%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.9%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.6%

#2 0–0 16.4%

#3 1–1 11.4%

#4 2–0 12.9%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ituano1.3

Maranhao0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ITUANO · PPG 2.60

MARANHAO · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=48.0%

Win probability 1X2

Ituano (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -23.2%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -1.7%

Maranhao (A) 23.3%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ituano face Maranhao in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ituano a 48% chance, the draw 29% and Maranhao 23%, so Ituano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ituano and 0.6 for Maranhao (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ituano are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.83 for Maranhao. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.9%.

Ituano vs Maranhao Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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