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Floresta vs Barra FC Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 12 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 19:00

Floresta

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Barra FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-114.7%0-27.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.2%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.5%2-16.2%2-22.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.0%3-11.9%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 46.5% 2.15 -23.7%

Draw 31.0% 35.7% 2.80 -13.2%

Away win 33.6% 27.8% 3.60 +21.0%

Over 2.5 37.3% 33.9% 2.95 +10.0%

Over 3.5 19.7% 16.7% 6.00 +10.9%

BTTS 48.1% 43.5% 2.30 +10.6%

Home O1.5 32.5% 35.7% 2.80 -9.0%

Away O1.5 26.9% 23.8% 4.20 +7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.1%

D 31% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.5%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.7%

#4 1–0 14.2%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Floresta0.9

Barra FC0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORESTA · PPG 1.33

BARRA FC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Floresta (H) 35.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -23.7%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.2%

Barra FC (A) 33.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Floresta face Barra FC in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Floresta a 36% chance, the draw 31% and Barra FC 34%, so Floresta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Floresta and 0.9 for Barra FC (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Floresta are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Barra FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Floresta vs Barra FC Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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