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Operario PR vs America MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 14:00

Operario PR

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

America MG

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-17.1%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.8%1-111.4%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.0%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.7%3-14.8%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-12.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 54.1% 1.85 +1.2%

Draw 25.0% 29.9% 3.35 -9.8%

Away win 20.3% 23.0% 4.35 -7.0%

Over 2.5 49.8% 44.4% 2.25 +12.0%

Over 3.5 28.6% 23.8% 4.20 +12.1%

BTTS 48.1% 50.0% 2.00 -3.8%

Home O1.5 49.0% 47.6% 2.10 +2.9%

Away O1.5 22.9% 25.0% 4.00 -5.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 130 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.1%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 15.8%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 2–0 12.6%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Operario PR1.6

America MG0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OPERARIO PR · PPG 1.71

AMERICA MG · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=54.7%

Win probability 1X2

Operario PR (H) 54.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +1.2%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.8%

America MG (A) 20.3%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Operario PR face America MG in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Operario PR a 55% chance, the draw 25% and America MG 20%, so Operario PR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Operario PR and 0.7 for America MG (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Operario PR are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.71 for America MG. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Operario PR vs America MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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