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Novorizontino vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 15 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 22:00

Novorizontino

PPG 1.83 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Vila Nova

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-110.4%0-25.4%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.7%1-113.1%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.0%2-18.3%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.4%3-13.5%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 52.6% 1.90 -14.5%

Draw 27.2% 30.8% 3.25 -7.0%

Away win 27.8% 23.8% 4.20 +10.1%

Over 2.5 49.8% 44.4% 2.25 +12.0%

Over 3.5 28.6% 23.8% 4.20 +12.1%

BTTS 52.8% 51.3% 1.95 +3.0%

Home O1.5 43.1% 46.5% 2.15 -7.3%

Away O1.5 35.6% 25.6% 3.90 +38.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 130 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.8%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–1✓ 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novorizontino1.3

Vila Nova1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 1.83

VILA NOVA · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.83), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Novorizontino (H) 45.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -14.5%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.0%

Vila Nova (A) 27.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novorizontino face Vila Nova in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novorizontino a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Vila Nova 28%, so Novorizontino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Novorizontino and 1.0 for Vila Nova (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novorizontino are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.57 for Vila Nova. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +38.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Novorizontino vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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