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Cuiaba vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 15 ·Thursday, June 25, 2026, 23:30

Cuiaba

PPG 1.43 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Londrina

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.7%0-111.2%0-23.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.5%1-111.5%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.1%2-16.0%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.8%3-12.1%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 55.6% 1.80 -18.8%

Draw 31.2% 32.8% 3.05 -4.8%

Away win 23.6% 18.9% 5.30 +15.0%

Over 2.5 34.9% 38.2% 2.62 -8.6%

Over 3.5 18.0% 19.0% 5.25 -3.3%

BTTS 44.2% 44.4% 2.25 -0.5%

Home O1.5 35.5% 44.4% 2.25 -20.1%

Away O1.5 18.0% 19.0% 5.25 -3.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 130 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.2%

H 45% / xG 1.0-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.7%

#2 1–0 21.5%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 0–1 11.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cuiaba1.0

Londrina0.5

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CUIABA · PPG 1.43

LONDRINA · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.43) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Cuiaba (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -18.8%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -4.8%

Londrina (A) 23.6%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cuiaba face Londrina in Brazil - Serie B on Thursday, June 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cuiaba a 45% chance, the draw 31% and Londrina 24%, so Cuiaba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Cuiaba and 0.5 for Londrina (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cuiaba are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.86 for Londrina. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Cuiaba vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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