Today / Brazil - Serie B / America MG vs Criciuma

America MG vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 14 ·Tuesday, June 23, 2026, 23:00

America MG

PPG 0.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Criciuma

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 39.7% — a clear edge.

+27.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-117.5%0-212.2%0-35.7%0-4+2.7%1 1-08.5%1-111.9%1-28.3%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-02.9%2-14.0%2-22.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.7%3-10.9%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 21.4% 2.95 -22.1%

Draw 27.9% 2.98 -10.1%

Away win 50.7% 2.52 +27.8%

Over 2.5 47.4% 2.45 +16.1%

Over 3.5 27.5% 4.75 +18.4%

BTTS 48.1% 1.95 -6.2%

Win probability 1X2

America MG (H) 21.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -22.1%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -10.1%

Criciuma (A) 50.7%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV +27.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 78.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob48.1%

A 51% / xG 0.7-1.4 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.5%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 0–2 12.2%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America MG0.7

Criciuma1.4

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA MG · PPG 0.17

CRICIUMA · PPG 1.29

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs Home POOR (0.17)

Match Preview & Prediction

America MG face Criciuma in Brazil - Serie B on Tuesday, June 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America MG a 21% chance, the draw 28% and Criciuma 51%, so Criciuma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for America MG and 1.4 for Criciuma (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America MG are averaging 0.17 points per game versus 1.29 for Criciuma. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.8%.

America MG vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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