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America MG vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 14 ·Tuesday, June 23, 2026, 23:00

America MG

PPG 0.17 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Criciuma

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 39.7% — a clear edge.

+27.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-117.5%0-212.2%0-35.7%0-4+2.7%1 1-08.5%1-111.9%1-28.3%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-02.9%2-14.0%2-22.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.7%3-10.9%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.4% 33.9% 2.95 -22.1%

Draw 27.9% 33.6% 2.98 -10.1%

Away win 50.7% 39.7% 2.52 +27.8%

Over 2.5 47.4% 40.8% 2.45 +16.1%

Over 3.5 27.5% 21.1% 4.75 +18.4%

BTTS 48.1% 51.3% 1.95 -6.2%

Home O1.5 32.5% 31.3% 3.20 +4.0%

Away O1.5 38.9% 35.7% 2.80 +8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 130 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob48.1%

A 51% / xG 0.7-1.4 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 17.5%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 0–2 12.2%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America MG0.7

Criciuma1.4

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA MG · PPG 0.17

CRICIUMA · PPG 1.29

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs Home POOR (0.17)

Win probability 1X2

America MG (H) 21.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -22.1%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -10.1%

Criciuma (A) 50.7%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV +27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

America MG face Criciuma in Brazil - Serie B on Tuesday, June 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America MG a 21% chance, the draw 28% and Criciuma 51%, so Criciuma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for America MG and 1.4 for Criciuma (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America MG are averaging 0.17 points per game versus 1.29 for Criciuma. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.8%. This match finished 0-1.

America MG vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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