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Nautico vs Goias Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 21:30

Nautico

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Goias

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-18.3%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.9%1-112.2%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.0%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.3%3-14.4%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 1.93 +0.8%

Draw 24.6% 3.45 -9.1%

Away win 23.2% 3.85 -6.4%

Over 2.5 49.8% 2.00 -0.4%

Over 3.5 28.6% 3.55 +0.9%

BTTS 52.8% 1.77 -6.5%

Home Over 1.5 43.5% 2.00 -13.0%

Away Over 1.5 22.9% 3.25 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 83.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.8%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 14.9%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nautico1.5

Goias0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NAUTICO · PPG 1.50

GOIAS · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Nautico (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.93 · IMPLIED 51.8% EV +0.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.1%

Goias (A) 23.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nautico face Goias in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nautico a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Goias 23%, so Nautico are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Nautico and 0.8 for Goias (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nautico are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.86 for Goias. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.9%.

Nautico vs Goias Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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