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Nautico vs Goias Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 21:30

Nautico

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Goias

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-18.3%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.9%1-112.2%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.0%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.3%3-14.4%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 51.8% 1.93 +0.8%

Draw 24.6% 29.0% 3.45 -9.1%

Away win 23.2% 26.0% 3.85 -6.4%

Over 2.5 49.8% 50.0% 2.00 -0.4%

Over 3.5 28.6% 28.2% 3.55 +0.9%

BTTS 52.8% 56.5% 1.77 -6.5%

Home O1.5 43.5% 50.0% 2.00 -13.0%

Away O1.5 22.9% 30.8% 3.25 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.8%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 14.9%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nautico1.5

Goias0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NAUTICO · PPG 1.50

GOIAS · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Nautico (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.93 · IMPLIED 51.8% EV +0.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.1%

Goias (A) 23.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nautico face Goias in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nautico a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Goias 23%, so Nautico are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Nautico and 0.8 for Goias (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nautico are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.86 for Goias. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Nautico vs Goias Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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