Today / Brazil - Serie B / Criciuma vs Sao Bernardo

Criciuma vs Sao Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 19:00

Criciuma

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Sao Bernardo

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.3%0-116.3%0-27.7%0-32.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-014.1%1-113.2%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-05.7%2-15.4%2-22.5%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.5%3-11.5%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.8% 62.5% 1.60 -44.3%

Draw 31.3% 28.2% 3.55 +11.1%

Away win 33.9% 16.7% 6.00 +103.4%

Over 2.5 35.8% 45.5% 2.20 -21.2%

Over 3.5 18.0% 23.8% 4.20 -14.6%

BTTS 47.1% 47.6% 2.10 -1.1%

Home O1.5 32.5% 54.1% 1.85 -39.9%

Away O1.5 25.2% 20.0% 5.00 +15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 130 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.1%

D 31% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.3%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–1 16.3%

#4 1–0✓ 14.1%

#5 0–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Criciuma0.8

Sao Bernardo0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CRICIUMA · PPG 2.00

SAO BERNARDO · PPG 2.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Criciuma (H) 34.8%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -44.3%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +11.1%

Sao Bernardo (A) 33.9%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +103.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Criciuma face Sao Bernardo in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Criciuma a 35% chance, the draw 31% and Sao Bernardo 34%, so Criciuma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Criciuma and 0.9 for Sao Bernardo (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Criciuma are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.67 for Sao Bernardo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +103.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Criciuma vs Sao Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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