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Grobina vs Auda Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 20 ·Thursday, June 25, 2026, 14:00

Grobina

PPG 0.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Auda

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-114.8%0-212.1%0-36.6%0-4+3.9%1 1-06.9%1-111.3%1-29.3%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-02.7%2-14.4%2-23.6%2-32.0%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.7%3-11.1%3-20.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 20.4% 5.50 +7.3%

Draw 24.0% 3.75 -6.0%

Away win 55.6% 1.53 -14.9%

Over 2.5 49.8% 1.77 -11.8%

Over 3.5 28.6% 2.95 -9.4%

BTTS 48.1% 1.80 -13.4%

Win probability 1X2

Grobina (H) 20.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +7.3%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.0%

Auda (A) 55.6%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 0.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob48.1%

A 56% / xG 0.8-1.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.8%

#2 1–1 11.3%

#3 0–2 12.1%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 1–2 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grobina0.8

Auda1.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GROBINA · PPG 0.60

AUDA · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Match Preview & Prediction

Grobina face Auda in Latvia - Virsliga on Thursday, June 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grobina a 20% chance, the draw 24% and Auda 56%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Grobina and 1.6 for Auda (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grobina are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 2.20 for Auda. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +21.9%.

Grobina vs Auda Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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