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RFS vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 19 ·Monday, June 22, 2026, 15:00

RFS

PPG 2.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ogre United

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.7% vs bookmaker-implied 94.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-10.6%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.9%1-12.3%1-20.6%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-08.0%2-14.6%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.8%3-16.2%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-032.6%4+-118.8%4+-25.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 72.7% 1.06 -22.9%

Draw 17.8% 8.60 +31.9%

Away win 9.5% 23.00 +71.1%

Over 2.5 72.6% 1.22 -11.4%

Over 3.5 53.2% 1.60 -14.9%

BTTS 48.5% 2.25 +9.1%

Win probability 1X2

RFS (H) 72.7%

ODDS 1.06 · IMPLIED 94.3% EV -22.9%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 8.60 · IMPLIED 11.6% EV +31.9%

Ogre United (A) 9.5%

ODDS 23.00 · IMPLIED 4.3% EV +71.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 60%

ROI -3.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 73% / xG 4.1-0.6 / O2.5 73% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 11.0%

#2 3–0 10.8%

#3 5–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 4–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RFS4.1

Ogre United0.6

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RFS · PPG 2.38

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.38), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Match Preview & Prediction

RFS face Ogre United in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, June 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RFS a 73% chance, the draw 18% and Ogre United 10%, so RFS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.1 for RFS and 0.6 for Ogre United (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RFS are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.33 for Ogre United. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +71.1%.

RFS vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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