Today / Latvia - Virsliga / RFS vs Ogre United

RFS vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 19 ·Monday, June 22, 2026, 15:00

RFS

PPG 2.38 · HOME

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Ogre United

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-10.6%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.9%1-12.3%1-20.6%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-08.0%2-14.6%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.8%3-16.2%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-032.6%4+-118.8%4+-25.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.7% 94.3% 1.06 -22.9%

Draw 17.8% 11.6% 8.60 +31.9%

Away win 9.5% 4.3% 23.00 +71.1%

Over 2.5 72.6% 82.0% 1.22 -11.4%

Over 3.5 53.2% 62.5% 1.60 -14.9%

BTTS 48.5% 44.4% 2.25 +9.1%

Home O1.5 77.8% 87.0% 1.15 -10.5%

Away O1.5 18.0% 14.5% 6.90 +14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)4.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 73% / xG 4.1-0.6 / O2.5 73% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 11.0%

#2 3–0 10.8%

#3 5–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 4–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RFS4.1

Ogre United0.6

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RFS · PPG 2.38

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.38), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

RFS (H) 72.7%

ODDS 1.06 · IMPLIED 94.3% EV -22.9%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 8.60 · IMPLIED 11.6% EV +31.9%

Ogre United (A) 9.5%

ODDS 23.00 · IMPLIED 4.3% EV +71.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

RFS face Ogre United in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, June 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RFS a 73% chance, the draw 18% and Ogre United 10%, so RFS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.1 for RFS and 0.6 for Ogre United (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RFS are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.33 for Ogre United. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +71.1%. This match finished 6-0.

RFS vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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