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Daugavpils vs Riga FC Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 20 ·Thursday, June 25, 2026, 15:00

Daugavpils

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Riga FC

PPG 2.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-19.1%0-210.0%0-37.3%0-4+6.7%1 1-04.1%1-19.0%1-29.9%1-37.2%1-4+6.7%2 2-02.0%2-14.4%2-24.9%2-33.6%2-4+3.3%3 3-00.7%3-11.5%3-21.6%3-31.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 18.1% 8.80 +35.6%

Draw 22.0% 5.40 +11.3%

Away win 59.9% 1.25 -25.1%

Over 2.5 61.6% 1.30 -19.9%

Over 3.5 39.8% 1.77 -29.5%

BTTS 55.8% 1.55 -13.5%

Win probability 1X2

Daugavpils (H) 18.1%

ODDS 8.80 · IMPLIED 11.4% EV +35.6%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +11.3%

Riga FC (A) 59.9%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -25.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 0.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob55.8%

A 60% / xG 1.0-2.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 0–2 10.0%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 9.1%

#5 0–3 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daugavpils1.0

Riga FC2.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DAUGAVPILS · PPG 1.45

RIGA FC · PPG 2.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs Home AVERAGE (1.45)

Match Preview & Prediction

Daugavpils face Riga FC in Latvia - Virsliga on Thursday, June 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daugavpils a 18% chance, the draw 22% and Riga FC 60%, so Riga FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Daugavpils and 2.2 for Riga FC (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daugavpils are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 2.44 for Riga FC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +35.6%.

Daugavpils vs Riga FC Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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