Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Super Nova vs Auda

Super Nova vs Auda Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 11:00

Super Nova

PPG 0.71 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Auda

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-110.6%0-28.8%0-34.9%0-4+2.9%1 1-07.0%1-111.6%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.8%2-16.3%2-25.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.4%3-12.3%3-21.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 21.7% 4.60 +20.0%

Draw 24.9% 28.2% 3.55 -7.0%

Away win 46.2% 59.9% 1.67 -22.9%

Over 2.5 54.0% 55.6% 1.80 -2.8%

Over 3.5 32.6% 33.3% 3.00 -2.2%

BTTS 55.9% 57.8% 1.73 -3.3%

Home O1.5 36.4% 29.9% 3.35 +21.9%

Away O1.5 50.8% 57.8% 1.73 -12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.9%

A 46% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–1 10.6%

#4 0–2✓ 8.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Super Nova1.1

Auda1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SUPER NOVA · PPG 0.71

AUDA · PPG 2.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.11) vs Home POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Super Nova (H) 29.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +20.0%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.0%

Auda (A) 46.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Super Nova face Auda in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Super Nova a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Auda 46%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Super Nova and 1.7 for Auda (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Super Nova are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 2.11 for Auda. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +21.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Super Nova vs Auda Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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