Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Super Nova vs FS Jelgava

Super Nova vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 20 ·Thursday, June 25, 2026, 17:00

Super Nova

PPG 0.63 · HOME

UPCOMING

FS Jelgava

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-18.2%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.0%1-112.2%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.1%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.6%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 2.65 +27.2%

Draw 26.5% 3.25 -8.3%

Away win 25.5% 2.40 -23.3%

Over 2.5 49.8% 1.93 -3.9%

Over 3.5 28.6% 3.35 -2.5%

BTTS 51.5% 1.70 -12.4%

Win probability 1X2

Super Nova (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +27.2%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.3%

FS Jelgava (A) 25.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -23.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 0.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.5%

H 48% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Super Nova1.5

FS Jelgava0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SUPER NOVA · PPG 0.63

FS JELGAVA · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.63), Away POOR (0.89)

Match Preview & Prediction

Super Nova face FS Jelgava in Latvia - Virsliga on Thursday, June 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Super Nova a 48% chance, the draw 27% and FS Jelgava 26%, so Super Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Super Nova and 0.9 for FS Jelgava (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Super Nova are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 0.89 for FS Jelgava. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +27.2%.

Super Nova vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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