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Cruzeiro vs Gremio Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 12 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 23:30

Cruzeiro

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Gremio

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 54% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+26.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.9%0-23.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.6%1-19.8%1-26.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.9%3-16.3%3-24.1%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.9%4+-23.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 59.9% 1.67 -10.8%

Draw 21.8% 27.8% 3.60 -21.5%

Away win 24.8% 19.2% 5.20 +29.0%

Over 2.5 63.2% 50.0% 2.00 +26.4%

Over 3.5 41.1% 28.6% 3.50 +43.9%

BTTS 62.3% 52.6% 1.90 +18.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.3%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 7.6%

#4 2–0✓ 7.5%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruzeiro2.0

Gremio1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.2% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZEIRO · PPG 1.50

GREMIO · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=53.4%

Win probability 1X2

Cruzeiro (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -10.8%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -21.5%

Gremio (A) 24.8%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +29.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruzeiro face Gremio in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruzeiro a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Gremio 25%, so Cruzeiro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Cruzeiro and 1.3 for Gremio (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruzeiro are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.33 for Gremio. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +43.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Cruzeiro vs Gremio Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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