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IA Akranes vs Fram Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 12 ·Monday, June 29, 2026, 19:15

IA Akranes

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fram

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.8%0-23.5%0-32.9%0-4+3.3%1 1-02.2%1-15.5%1-26.9%1-35.8%1-4+6.6%2 2-02.2%2-15.5%2-26.9%2-35.8%2-4+6.6%3 3-01.5%3-13.7%3-24.6%3-33.9%3-4+4.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.9%4+-23.6%4+-33.0%4+-4+3.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 37.7% 2.65 -5.9%

Draw 21.4% 26.0% 3.85 -10.6%

Away win 43.0% 46.5% 2.15 -7.5%

Over 2.5 72.8% 76.9% 1.30 -5.4%

Over 3.5 52.9% 56.5% 1.77 -6.4%

BTTS 68.6% 78.1% 1.28 -12.2%

Home O1.5 54.4% 58.8% 1.70 -7.5%

Away O1.5 69.5% 64.5% 1.55 +7.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -8.2%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob68.6%

A 43% / xG 2.0-2.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 6.9%

#2 2–2 6.9%

#3 1–1 5.5%

#4 1–3 5.8%

#5 2–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IA Akranes2.0

Fram2.5

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.8% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

IA AKRANES · PPG 1.25

FRAM · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

IA Akranes (H) 35.5%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -5.9%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -10.6%

Fram (A) 43.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

IA Akranes face Fram in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Monday, June 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IA Akranes a 36% chance, the draw 21% and Fram 43%, so Fram are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for IA Akranes and 2.5 for Fram (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IA Akranes are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.00 for Fram. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.1%.

IA Akranes vs Fram Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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