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Deportes Tolima vs D. Pereira Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Apertura · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 23:10

Deportes Tolima

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

D. Pereira

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWL

// Model verdict

Home 82% chance

Model probability 91.2% vs bookmaker-implied 77.5% — a clear edge.

+17.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-10.9%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.0%1-13.1%1-20.7%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-012.1%2-15.4%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.9%3-16.2%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-029.0%4+-112.9%4+-22.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 91.2% 77.5% 1.29 +17.6%

Draw 6.6% 20.8% 4.80 -68.3%

Away win 2.2% 8.7% 11.50 -74.7%

Over 2.5 74.6% 57.8% 1.73 +29.1%

Over 3.5 54.6% 35.7% 2.80 +52.9%

BTTS 34.8% 46.5% 2.15 -25.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 4.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 88%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob34.8%

H 91% / xG 3.5-0.4 / O2.5 75% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 13.9%

#2 2–0✓ 12.1%

#3 4–0 12.0%

#4 5–0 8.3%

#5 1–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Tolima3.5

D. Pereira0.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.6% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES TOLIMA · PPG 2.38

D. PEREIRA · PPG 0.38

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

82%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.38), Away POOR (0.38) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Tolima (H) 91.2%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV +17.6%

Draw 6.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -68.3%

D. Pereira (A) 2.2%

ODDS 11.50 · IMPLIED 8.7% EV -74.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Tolima face D. Pereira in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Tolima a 91% chance, the draw 7% and D. Pereira 2%, so Deportes Tolima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Deportes Tolima and 0.4 for D. Pereira (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Tolima are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.38 for D. Pereira. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +52.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Deportes Tolima vs D. Pereira Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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