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Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 14 ·Monday, June 22, 2026, 23:00

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Novorizontino

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-114.9%0-212.9%0-37.4%0-4+4.7%1 1-06.2%1-110.8%1-29.3%1-35.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-02.2%2-13.9%2-23.4%2-31.9%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.5%3-10.9%3-20.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 14.3% 4.70 -19.7%

Draw 24.8% 3.30 -10.9%

Away win 60.9% 1.80 +9.6%

Over 2.5 49.5% 2.25 +11.4%

Over 3.5 28.3% 4.20 +11.3%

BTTS 48.5% 2.00 -3.0%

Win probability 1X2

Ponte Preta (H) 14.3%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -19.7%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.9%

Novorizontino (A) 60.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 85.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob48.5%

A 61% / xG 0.7-1.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.9%

#2 0–2 12.9%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ponte Preta0.7

Novorizontino1.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.71

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 1.43

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs Home POOR (0.71)

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponte Preta face Novorizontino in Brazil - Serie B on Monday, June 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponte Preta a 14% chance, the draw 25% and Novorizontino 61%, so Novorizontino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Ponte Preta and 1.7 for Novorizontino (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponte Preta are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.43 for Novorizontino. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +36.1%.

Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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