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Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 14 ·Monday, June 22, 2026, 23:00

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.71 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Novorizontino

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-114.9%0-212.9%0-37.4%0-4+4.7%1 1-06.2%1-110.8%1-29.3%1-35.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-02.2%2-13.9%2-23.4%2-31.9%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.5%3-10.9%3-20.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.3% 21.3% 4.70 -19.7%

Draw 24.8% 30.3% 3.30 -10.9%

Away win 60.9% 55.6% 1.80 +9.6%

Over 2.5 49.5% 44.4% 2.25 +11.4%

Over 3.5 28.3% 23.8% 4.20 +11.3%

BTTS 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

Home O1.5 32.4% 23.8% 4.20 +36.1%

Away O1.5 50.8% 47.6% 2.10 +6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob48.5%

A 61% / xG 0.7-1.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.9%

#2 0–2✓ 12.9%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ponte Preta0.7

Novorizontino1.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.71

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 1.43

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs Home POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Ponte Preta (H) 14.3%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -19.7%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.9%

Novorizontino (A) 60.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponte Preta face Novorizontino in Brazil - Serie B on Monday, June 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponte Preta a 14% chance, the draw 25% and Novorizontino 61%, so Novorizontino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Ponte Preta and 1.7 for Novorizontino (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponte Preta are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.43 for Novorizontino. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +36.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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