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Thor Akureyri vs Valur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 17:00

Thor Akureyri

PPG 0.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Valur

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-17.1%0-27.9%0-35.8%0-4+5.3%1 1-04.0%1-18.7%1-29.6%1-37.1%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.4%2-15.4%2-25.9%2-34.3%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.0%3-12.2%3-22.4%3-31.8%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 25.8% 3.50 -5.8%

Draw 20.8% 4.20 -7.6%

Away win 53.4% 1.75 -6.6%

Over 2.5 64.6% 1.30 -16.0%

Over 3.5 42.0% 1.80 -24.4%

BTTS 61.6% 1.33 -18.1%

Home Over 1.5 42.9% 2.00 -14.2%

Away Over 1.5 64.7% 1.42 -8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob61.6%

A 53% / xG 1.2-2.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.9%

#4 1–3 7.1%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thor Akureyri1.2

Valur2.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

THOR AKUREYRI · PPG 0.60

VALUR · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.20) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Thor Akureyri (H) 25.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.8%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.6%

Valur (A) 53.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Thor Akureyri face Valur in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thor Akureyri a 26% chance, the draw 21% and Valur 53%, so Valur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Thor Akureyri and 2.2 for Valur (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thor Akureyri are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.20 for Valur.

Thor Akureyri vs Valur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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